2025 U.S. Open Odds, Predictions: Can Scheffler Win at Oakmont?

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler enters the 2025 U.S. Open with major momentum, having already claimed three PGA Tour victories this year. After securing his third major title at the PGA Championship in May, he is now the betting favorite to triumph at Oakmont Country Club.

Scheffler is listed at +280, making him the top choice according to the latest odds. His consistent dominance since joining the PGA Tour in 2020 — including 16 overall wins — places him ahead of other top names in the field.

Top U.S. Open Contenders

Hot on Scheffler’s heels is defending U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau, priced at +700. DeChambeau clinched a dramatic win last year, narrowly defeating Rory McIlroy by one stroke. If he can repeat that feat, he’ll become the first back-to-back U.S. Open winner since Brooks Koepka accomplished it in 2017 and 2018.

McIlroy and Jon Rahm are also in the conversation, with odds at +1100 and +1200 respectively. McIlroy won the 2025 Masters earlier in the season, completing his long-awaited career grand slam. Rahm came close to victory at the PGA Championship but ultimately slipped to a T-8 finish.

Betting Recap of 2025 Majors So Far

This year’s majors have seen favorites deliver strong performances. McIlroy’s win at the Players Championship returned good value at 12-1, while Scheffler went off around +500 before capturing the PGA Championship. Despite short odds, favorites have lived up to expectations in 2025, making value plays more important for bettors.

2025 U.S. Open Tournament Winner Odds

Player	Odds	$10 Bet Returns
Scottie Scheffler	+275	$37.50 total
Bryson DeChambeau	+750	$85.00 total
Jon Rahm	+1200	$130.00 total
Rory McIlroy	+1200	$130.00 total
Xander Schauffele	+2200	$230.00 total
Collin Morikawa	+2500	$260.00 total
Joaquin Niemann	+3000	$310.00 total
Ludvig Åberg	+3000	$310.00 total
Tommy Fleetwood	+3500	$360.00 total
Tyrrell Hatton	+4500	$460.00 total
Shane Lowry	+4500	$460.00 total
Justin Thomas	+4500	$460.00 total
Sepp Straka	+5000	$510.00 total
Brooks Koepka	+5500	$560.00 total
Patrick Cantlay	+5500	$560.00 total
Corey Conners	+6000	$610.00 total
Viktor Hovland	+6000	$610.00 total
Russell Henley	+6500	$660.00 total
Ben Griffin	+7000	$710.00 total
Jordan Spieth	+7000	$710.00 total
Hideki Matsuyama	+7000	$710.00 total

Rory McIlroy: A Risky Bet at Oakmont?

Despite his Masters victory, McIlroy’s form has dipped in recent events. He and partner Shane Lowry finished T12 at the Zurich Classic, followed by a T7 at the Truist Championship and a T47 at the PGA Championship. He also missed the cut at the RBC Canadian Open — raising doubts about his consistency heading into Oakmont.

While McIlroy remains among the favorites, some analysts believe his current game doesn’t justify the short odds.

One of the most intriguing longshots for the 2025 U.S. Open is Justin Thomas. Currently sitting at 40-1, Thomas has quietly built a strong 2025 campaign. He has one win this year — at the RBC Heritage — and six top-10 finishes in just 13 starts.

What’s driving his success? Thomas leads the PGA Tour in putting average (1.658), ranks third in putts per round (27.72), and holds the sixth-best one-putt percentage (45%). That level of consistency on the greens could be a game-changer at a course like Oakmont.

Top Longshots to Watch

Beyond Thomas, the predictive model has identified four additional players with odds of 25-1 or longer who could challenge for the title. These picks offer high upside and could deliver massive returns for risk-tolerant bettors.

Will Scheffler Finally Win the U.S. Open?

Scheffler has already proven he can win on golf’s biggest stages — but the U.S. Open remains missing from his resume. With elite form and strong course fit, this could be the year he breaks through at Oakmont. Still, with value plays like Justin Thomas and other emerging contenders, the 2025 U.S. Open promises to be one of the most exciting majors in recent memory.